Unless you've been wearing Bose headphones for the last month, I'm sure you've heard the buzz surrounding BlogMogger. Basically, we are blowing up like the Bash Brothers after a locker room needle session. Some of this can be attributed to the fact that you can now find your favorite blog at NBA-bloggers.com. (for those of you who found us that way, welcome and if you have any questions email blogmogger@yahoo.com).
Recently I had an argument with a friend who has an unnaturally large obsession with Gilbert Arenas about how Agent Zero was the most selfish player in the NBA. Mostly, I was just saying this to piss him off but it did seem that prior to this season, whenever Arenas went off for a 40 point game the Wizards would lose. I used this as evidence that the winning formula for the Wiz was not to rely on Gilbert jacking up 40 shots but rather to play team ball and distribute the wealth. Anyone who watched the Detroit-LA Finals in which the "team ball" Pistons dismantled Kobe and Shaq in five games can tell you that post-MJ, the key to winning a title in the NBA is having a strong core of players - not a singular star.
In the star-focused NBA, analysts seem to always criticize teams without a clear-cut go-to-guy for not having one guy that the team knows they can lean on when the game is on the line. The idea being that a team needs that one player who can elevate his game to new levels in big games and carry his team on his back (such as DWade did in the Finals or Dirk did prior to the Finals).
All of this led me to wonder: Is it better for a team's leading scorer to stay within the usual team scheme or to take it upon himself to lift his own personal game (and point total) and try to carry the team on his back? The result: The NBA ME-ter.
The "ME-ter" measures the effect of the team's leading scorer "upping the ante" and scoring more than 20% above his season average in a game. For example, if Elton Brand averages 20 points per game, what happens when he scores at least 24?
In order to get each scorer's ME-ter rating, I compared his team's winning percentage in games in which he scores at least 20% above his average (ME games) to the team's winning percentage when he stays below the +20% mark (TEAM games).
The ME-ter Readings: (as of 1/16/o7)
"ME in Team" - Players whose teams get the biggest jump in win % from their stepping it up:
1) Paul Pierce, Boston Celtics = +62.2% - this comes as no surprise since the Celtics have no other All-Star caliber players and have gone 2-11 since Pierce has gone down with an injury. Boston is 6-1 in games in which Pierce goes 20% above his average (32+points) and just 4-13 when he doesn't.
2) Baron Davis, Golden State Warriors = +54.2% - the Warriors are hovering around .500 for the year (19-20). Perhaps a greater focus on scoring from their point guard could get them into the playoff race as they are 8-1 in Baron's ME games and just 9-17 in TEAM games.
3) Gilbert Arenas, Washington Wizards = +45.6% - much to my buddy's delight, it turns out the Wiz are well-suited to being a 1-man show. They are 9-1 in the Eastern Confernce's leading scorer's ME games and 12-15 in the TEAM games. However, unlike the Celtics who simply can't win without Pierce going off, it's possible that "Hibachi's" big ME-ter rating could indicate that when Jamison and Caron pull their weight AND Arenas goes off, the Wiz are tough to beat.
4) Chris Bosh, Toronto Raptors = +43.5% - the leaders of the horrific Atlantic Division are 18-21 overall but actually went 6-6 without their best player. However, when he is in the game, it's Bosh or bust for the team north of the border as they are 6-2 in Chris's ME games and just 6-13 in TEAM games.
5) Elton Brand, LA Clippers = +34.3% - the Clippers have slipped this year after breaking through last year. The unselfish Brand would never demand the ball himself so I'll say it for him: if you want to win, feed Elton rock! The Clip Joint are 7-3 in EB's ME games and 10-18 in TEAM games.
Trends: other than the Wizards, these are teams in the bottom half of the NBA. In the case of the Raptors, Warriors, and Celtics, there aren't many other players who can shoulder the scoring load and therefore the team only wins when the star goes off. It's simple, if you only have one great player and he has a big night, you have a chance to win. If he doesn't, you lose. Therefore, as I said earlier, one great player is not enough to win in this league.
"Win Together, Lose Alone" - players whose teams are hurt the most by their "big" nights:
1) Rip Hamilton, Detroit Pistons = -45.5% - Considering they were the proof that a great team beats a great star, I am not surprised. The Pistons are built on solid defense and balanced offense. When Rip, Chauncey Billups, Rasheed Wallace, and Tayshawn Prince are all contributing the Pistons are a dangerous team. Rip has only had 5 ME games but Detroit is 1-4 in them and 19-10 in the rest. His leading this list probably has more to do with Rip having a good night when all of the others were off rather than his hogging the ball and costing his team.
2) Steve Nash, Phoenix Suns = - 18% - the league's leading assist man has had 9 ME games (6-3) and 26 TEAM games (22-4). His - 18% is misleading and is mostly due to the Suns high overall winning percentage and their Sun-N-Gun 3-pointer happy style of play. Clearly, Nash knows that the Suns are at their best when he is setting up his teammates and the numbers back him up.
3) LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers = -17.8% - the Cavs are only 4-4 in the King's ME games and an impressive 19-9 in TEAM games. It seems that when his teammates are playing well, LeBron reduces his scoring and the Cavs win. However, on the nights when the supporting cast can't get it going, #23 is forced to take things into his own hands. The 4-4 mark may actually be more of a testament to LeBron's ability to pull out Ws when his team is struggling rather than a condemnation of his trying to take over a game at the detriment of the team.
4) Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs = -15.7% - the Big Fundamental is a reluctant scorer, preferring to use his post presence to draw double teams and create open shots for his teammates. A tip for opponent's of the team with the league's 3rd-best record: let Timmy score and D up everyone else! The Spurs are 7-5 in Duncan's ME games and 20-7 in TEAM games. Much like when Shaq went for 40-20 in a Lakers loss in the 2004 Finals, the key to beating the Spurs is to isolate Duncan and take your lumps and hold down the rest of the Spurs (easier said than done).
5) Carmelo Anthony = -11.9% - the Nuggets have gone 5-8 without the league's leading scorer and 14-9 with Melo in the lineup so clearly he is the straw that stirs the drink in Denver. Before the brawl at MSG, Carmelo was remarkably consistent while averaging 31.6ppg, totaling only 2 ME games (1-1, TEAM 13-8). His negative ME-ter rating is a product of a low sample size and therefore is not really that useful.
6) Yao Ming, Houston Rockets = -5.6% - I am including Yao on this list because his numbers caught me by surprise. The critics always implore Yao to take charge and be more aggressive but the Rockets were 5-4 in his ME games and 11-7 in TEAM games, a negligible difference. However, unlike the Nuggets who have crumbled without Carmelo, the Rockets have gone 9-2 since Yao broke his leg compared with 16-11 with him in the middle, suggesting that Houston may be better served to let Tracy McGrady play a bigger role when the big man returns,
Trends - All of the teams whose leading scorers made this list are playoff claiber, including title contenders Phoenix, San Antonio, Cleveland, and Detroit. It would seem that the negative ME ratings for these players are caused by their team's high overall winning percentage and possibly losses that occur when the usual supporting players are not on their games and the star player is forced to do significantly more than usual. It is important to note that the ME games are those in which the leading scorer is taking on an especially large scoring load compared to his average, not just a large number in general. However, the numbers do seem to suggest that the "big players come up big in big games" axiom may not be the best way to win, but rather "big teams come up big in big games" as good teams tend to lose more often when their leading scorer has a big night.
Best ME Win % - the players whose teams win the most games when they go big:
Top Dog - Dirk Nowitzski (9-0, 100%) - when the Big German goes big, Big D goes home happy. The league's best team is undefeated in Dirk's ME games.
2) Gilbert Arenas (9-1, 90%) - what can I say, I was wrong - let the Hibachi slice!
3) Baron Davis (8-1, 88.8%) -Without JRich, he's all Golden State's got
4) Paul Pierce (6-1, 85.7%) - they are bad with him, horrendous without him
5) Kevin Garnett (5-1, 83.3%) - the T-Wolves are 15-15 in TEAM games. KG is still the man
6) TIE: DWade, Kobe, Bosh (6-2, 75%) - the Heat without Shaq are basically the same teams as the Lakers without him so it makes sense.
Worst ME Win %
"Dish the Rock" Award: Rip Hamilton (1-4, 20%)
2) Pau Gasol (2-5, 28.5%) - more a reflection of how bad the Grizz are, Pau is trying his best
3) Ray Allen (3-5, 37.5%) - he got game, the rest of the Sonics don't
4) TIE: 42.5% - Chris Paul (3-4) Emeka Okefeor (6-8) - talented young players on really bad teams
The next time your buddy claims that his boy is carrying the team, you'll have some ammo. Enjoy!
Wednesday, January 17, 2007
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3 comments:
Im gonna write this and try not to confuse myself by thinking about it so if it doesn't make sense don't get mad. To prove your point about Gilbert would it make sense to analyze the number of shot attempts per game instead of points? If it doesn't fit in here, it might just be interesting to see if there is any correlation between the number of shots Gilbert takes above average a night and the Wiz's record on those nights.
Ben
your whole basis is flawed. what you call a 'me' game should be broken down more closely to see if the player just took more shots to reach his total(not necessarily helping his team) or if he was actually having a good game by scoring a high %(defintely helping his team).
The purpose of the article was only to assess the effect of a team's leading scorer having a big scoring night on his team's win%. The "ME" game tag was not meant to imply that the player was unneccesarily selfish or that the big scoring gamae was a reflection of a "good" game just as the "TEAM" tag was not meant to imply better team play as it is possible that in the TEAM games, another scorer may have gone big. (Jamison or Caron for the Wiz for example)
The FGA question is a good one as obviously 25 points on 18 shots is much better for the team than 35 points on 45 shots, and my guess is that a study of win% in games in which the leading scorer is not the leading shot attempter would result in a higher correlation with team win%. I appreciate the comments and welcome any further questions at blogmogger@yahoo.com. Check back at blogmogger.blogspot.com for more in the future.
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